Iron ore price, page-412

[Apr 6] Imported Iron Ore Port Stocks (mln ton)
Port Stocks This Week Last Week Change
Total 133.74 134.56 -0.82
Trade 43.31 43.94 -0.63
Australia 71.08 71.60 -0.52
Brazil 29.55 29.70 -0.15

[Apr 6] Mysteel Survey on Steel Mill Iron Ore Stock
Imported Ore This Month Change
Average Days 24 Days -1
Molten Iron Costs Yuan 2061/ton -15

So when IO port inventory decreased this week no one talks about it? Average days for Steel mills decreased by 1 day and no one talks about it?

Analyst been talking about IO going to US$20 when Spot is US$40, and 40 when spot is 60, now 60 when spot is 80. What‘s next? 55 when spot is 75?

Even at US$60, and supply will be tight, very tight, bacause the Big 4 are the only ones whos making good money and they are freezing their capacity. At US$60, FMG is making tons of cash, at NPAT of US$2.2B. Or earnings of 95c per share , and possibly yield of 8% at SP of $6.

If this was happening 18 or 24 months ago, I would of sold all shares and run for cover, but even at US$60, FMG is still making good money and yield, thanks to debt reduction and lower costing from the past 12 months. At US$60, FMG can still repay $800M-1B per Q without doing anything. With Gloss debt of less than US$4B ATM, FMG will be debt free from mid next year at the latest.

They say once bitten twice shy, investors do worry about SP going back to lows of 2015, but balance sheet improved so much so you can‘t really compare with 18 months ago. 18 months ago, FMG‘s all in cost was nearly US$50/wmt, now it‘s less than US $32/wmt and possibly to US$30 by end of June.

New investors from past 3 months had a tough time, but if you bought in the lows last 3 months, with dividend you probably still ahead, what will happen next couple of months is anyone‘s guess. If analyst who gets top money can‘t even get it right last 12 months, what hope does amature posters have here on HC? Talk down the SP all you like, SP is already price in the fall on Friday, if I can get spot prices without too much trouble, so do the big players. Stil a good buy at low $6s IMO.

But DYOR.

Frank.