Iron ore price, page-42210

I am not so sure that China will be as flat next year as suggested by the commentators including the world steel association.

The stock piles of ore already in the country, purchased in huge volumes after the iron ore market crashed and begin its rapid recovery - this is already being put to use. Steel volumes in China are diminishing at a good rate and steel prices in China are heading north.

Steel mill profits are good and the global steel price is still very high by historic standards. More global infrastructure stimulus is about to hit the globe over the next 2-3 years and it requires more steel than ever. This stimulus is unstoppable and undeniable as will be the wave of inflation that accompanies it.

In China, new stimulus and the end of the Winter Olympics and the need to restore Chinese prosperity is a greater bet than the anti pollution bet imo.

The need to stabilise the Chinese property market is very very real for the CCP. The people agree not to revolt as long as they have their Android phones and Great Wall Sedans, there mono tone apartments with two bedrooms and one child. Like many parts of Melb.

The Chinese rely on increasing housing values (apartments) a form of personal ATM to make constant withdrawals. Like the rest of us, after day in the factory, we want something for our toil.

Blinded by a sense of prosperity and security the people keep the contract they begrudgingly hold with the CCP. But without these everyday trinkets that give us meaning the CCP skates on thin ice heading into the Winter Olympics.

Failure to deliver, green shots of social descent unrest multiply & sow the seeds of revolt.

Am I going too far? Probably.

But the basis of the social contract is definitely threatened if you take away the prosperity and ability to buy Australian Seafood.

The CCP and it’s peoples bank, will reduce rates relax lending standards and pump liquidity into the system. Likely sooner than expected.

The economic advisors that guide the Great Wall of China sings from the same hymn book used by the high priests of Capitalism in Washington, London, Berlin and Tokyo.

Never bet against the People’s bank of China. I think they will stimulate a lot more and faster than most analysts predict ( most don’t even do that).

Thomas Hoobes once said that life is nasty brutish and short, without access to the things like an after lunch latte or a Tasmanian Pinot Noir over a basil and pumpkin gnocchi.... you know the good things that the owners of FMG shares enjoy after they receive the regular divs.

Above all else the CCP value stability the rest is an illusion. I think any fund manager worth his salt should knows this.

Anyway the Dalian is smashing it out tonight and although I am technically on holidays I closed a big fat deal today that almost gave me a bloody stroke and I’ll be back at the bloody desk in 5 hours, living at work or um working from home.

No matter where I am over the next four weeks I will be on holiday, this also means that I shall have my work laptop and my work phone surgically joined to my body.

I’m hoping to dive with some mantas off Lady Elliot and sleep under a million stars in a swag off Fitzroy island with my 4 yr old daughter whilst my wife does the five star thing....

I’m thinking of giving up finance, just going out on my own on the side but investing carefully on a daily basis and spending time with my three great girls instead. I’ll take a pay and hopefully a weight cut, chop off the impending heart attack before it happens. Actually leave the office before 7pm and walk in the park at lunch. Maybe I won’t need the cortisone injections in the hips and then maybe I’ll live another 20 years, out last my dad and help my kids achieve the dreams I never had the guts to chase ( except becoming a diving instructor, and buying fmg shares and becoming a dad)

I sincerely wish everyone a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

fmg are go