The production guidance is just standard Vale BS spin to help maintain Vale SP. You need to read between the lines and read through the lens of Vales history to understand the real truth.
Vale had countless fck ups last year. Most happened between Nov/ Dec - March when the rains are heaviest & Vale are trying desperately to increase production. At least twice in CY21 lowered production guidance.
The final production figures for CY21 will be published around early Feb, at end of Nov 21 they announced they lowered the target from 315 - 335mt down to 315- 320mt.
I estimate that they will do between 290 - 300mt. Well out of this range. In both CY20 & CY19 they came in well below guidance at 304 & 300mt. -
The CY21 figures were produced whilst Delta killed off much of the local miners workforce - Vale ship's collided and the port, the key iron ore loader on the main Valemax port caught fire and the local gov shut down a number of Iron ore mine sites as two tailings dams were deemed at risk of collapsing by the authorities....
Anyway, I don't believe that guidance one little bit...
Iron ore price, page-42547
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