Pretty much the entire rally from $14 to $23 was a PE re-rate, it was not driven by an increase in earnings expectations as the average price assumed by analysts has not changed (materially). As of yesterdays, FMG's blended forward 2 year PE was 14 which is one of the highest multiples FMG has traded at over the last 7 years... and now we have IO prices plunging again.
A forward PE at this elevated level just has no respect for the uncertainties FMG faces, its priced as if it is assumed that 100+ IO prices will remain and cost pressures will remain under control and FFI just works itself out.
To get back to a more normal 2 year blended forward PE of about 11, without an increase to earnings, would require a share price fall of about 20% from recent highs. That is why I believe FMG is overpriced here.
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Last
$18.27 |
Change
-0.290(1.56%) |
Mkt cap ! $56.25B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$18.70 | $18.72 | $18.21 | $313.4M | 17.09M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 45418 | $18.27 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$18.30 | 1200 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 17409 | 18.260 |
3 | 1797 | 18.250 |
2 | 3500 | 18.240 |
3 | 2143 | 18.230 |
5 | 6103 | 18.220 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
18.300 | 1200 | 1 |
18.310 | 400 | 1 |
18.340 | 3281 | 1 |
18.350 | 3000 | 1 |
18.380 | 75 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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