Your analysis is not as informative as some figures provided below.
The average IOP in 3Q22 were
Average Seaborne index 58% Fe fines $US89.6
Average Seaborne index 62% Fe fines $US141.2
Average Seaborne index 65% Fe fines $US170.2
But so far for the average IOP in 4Q22 we have
Average Seaborne index 58% Fe fines $US100.3
Average Seaborne index 62% Fe fines $US146.1
Average Seaborne index 65% Fe fines $US170.5
So far this quarter, AIOP for 58% Fe is over 10% higher that it was in the previous quarter and ~5% higher than in 1H22.
Based on the numbers above, the SP must be at least in the range of $21-$22.
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Your analysis is not as informative as some figures provided...
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