@PigsMightFly"At $70 FMG gross profit would halve. But you claim...

@PigsMightFly
"At $70 FMG gross profit would halve. But you claim the valuation wouldn't change. That's of the most nonsensical claims I've ever read on HC."
As usual, my dear Piggy, you use only one input to back up your distorted analysis, whilst ignoring all the other factors at play.... presumably as they fail to bolster your negative worldview.
From a microeconomic perspective a fall in the price of a commodity will result in a reduction in gross receipts to the producer/seller, other things being equal. You conveniently ignore the 'other things being equal" bit - the ceteris paribus part so beloved by economists - and this is where your argument comes unstuck....
Should IO fall in price microeconomic theory also says that demand should increase. It also says that production will cease to be economic for some producers thus decreasing supply which usually has the effect of raising prices again.
You're also ignoring all the macroeconomic factors at play - all those variables like interest rates, currency values, international relations, government policies etc which need to be factored into your peculiarly one-dimensional obsession with a need for the price of IO and the share price of FMG to fall.
As always, your pessimistic outlook brings a needed dose of amusement to my day and a little sadness that one can be so obsessed with something so unlikely to occur...