FMG 1.48% $26.05 fortescue ltd

The last time literally the same news (deja vu) came out in 2021...

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    The last time literally the same news (deja vu) came out in 2021 about regulator crackdown on runaway IO price driven by speculation saw IO price plummeted $150 or 63% from ($237 on May 12) to ($87 on Nov 18) in the space of just 6 months.

    Now the IO price (described as unacceptable) is just $120. So what a crackdown on $120 means is what we need to ask. The crackdown this time may have sustained power to keep IO price low say around $60 because domestic IO capacity built up over years can now be transported to coastal steel mills via newly built rail network.

    If there is one thing I can confidently say is that within 2023, China will demand (as condition) settlement of IO trade in RMB with all foreign suppliers in global dedollarization. The Big 3 and Vale have had plenty of practices selling cargo in RMB in previous dry runs.

    DYOR


 
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