Here's their review/outlook...
China had record iron ore consumption and near-record blast furnace utilisation rates in CY23.
China's steel production was resilient at high levels in CY23 producing more than 1 billion tonnes of steel over the last five years.
The real estate sector is still weak but they highlighted that this was offset by healthy growth in infrastructure, machinery and autos.
Net steel exports reaching a seven-year high.
They also think that China’s steel production will still be in the range of 1 to 1.1 billion tonnes this half decade.
Even though there was volatility in pricing FY23 they still expect similar dynamics for FY24.
Their estimate is that cost support should sit in the US$80 – US$100/t range on a 62% Fe.
As for China’s stimulus policy still unclear at this point in time.
China’s demand for iron ore medium term is expected to be lower.
India's steel production is picking up with strong growth and construction in FY23 and FY24 to continue on that growth trajectory.
Tony
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