I don’t agree with either the inputs or outputs here. IO price...

I don’t agree with either the inputs or outputs here.
IO price if low 90s would mean a realised IO price of about USD 80 at a discount of 15%. Not sure what discount they’re used but the days of 40% won’t happen anymore as China steel companies are very cost conscious. For fmg USD 80 would still generate about USD 3.5b profit per year or AUD 5b at AUD of 0.7. that’s about $1.65 EPS or 17 p/e.

Also IO of low 90s is unlikely given cost curve increasing considerably around the world.
While the big 3 here in Oz have a competitive advantage, there’s just no way that the majority of IO miners would be about to get their product to customers at under USD90 by 2026.

Apart from Guinea, there’s no other major increase in supply coming and it’s highly unlikely it will be ready within a couple of years and will take a while to ramp up. India steel is starting to become influential and any ban on IO exports would take 40mt out of the market.
Anyway we shall see