Despite US interest rates continuing to fall following last week's US Fed projections, the USD has resumed its rally which isn't good for global commodity demand.
I can't help but feel this is connected to the USD/JPY exchange trade (as a source of the USD strength)
- One of the biggest themes over the last ~30 years has been borrowing money in JPY and investing elsewhere as Japan has had to keep ultra-low interest rates, obviously an institutional hedge/fund trade. The BOJ raised interest rates for the first time since 2007 last week.
- Looking at the USD/JPY there appears to be a significant breakout about to occur:
In the past big movements in the JPY have disrupted currency markets.
What doesn't make sense to me, is I would have thought a closing out of this trade would result in the buying of JPY and selling of USD to repay JPY debt and the opposite of the above should be occurring.
Evidently this is an incomplete observation; I will ponder more.
There is nothing else to talk about.... lower AUD saved the day... or rather Monday.
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