I suspect the reasoning here is "when IO was at this price last...

I suspect the reasoning here is "when IO was at this price last time, the share price was under $20, so why isn't it this time"?

That reasoning is flawed, because the last time the IO price was at this level:

• Longer term expectations for IO were for it to go back to the $80's - Well that's now changed to the $90's.
• By FY27 FMG was expected to have $6.2b in debt - Well that's now $4b in debt due to the persistently higher short term IO price.

So there are two very material reasons as to why FMG should be worth more now, compared to when IO was last at these levels.

In saying that, analyst estimates are still well below the current share price so at both points of time the market is still saying analyst assumptions are F***.