thanks Tony. Vale says also that “On the global front, Franco...

thanks Tony. Vale says also that “On the global front, Franco said world steel production is likely to climb to 2.070 billion metric tons by 2030, from expected 1.9 billion tons.”

I probably would expect more than this. India produced 140mt in CY 2023 and are already tracking 10% higher this year and have repeatedly stated that 300mtpa is the goal by 2030. Even places like Indonesia have steel production of about 16mtpa and are aiming for about 33mtpa capacity by then.
https://iesr.or.id/en/embarking-on-the-decarbonization-journey-of-the-steel-industry

Saudi is looking to increase from 12mtpa to 20mtpa over the next 6 years as well. They have USD960b in construction projects in the pipeline until then
https://aisusteel.org/en/24115/

These are all collectively significant increases in production and even more so when you look at the % increase over the next 6 years or so. The populations of the likes of India (as much as China), Indonesia, Bangladesh and much of Asia are massive yet these developing countries are producing steel/consuming steel at very low kgs per capita.

even Bangladesh has one of the lowest per capita consumption rates at 45kg per person but are aiming to increase it to 100kg by 2030.
https://www.steelradar.com/en/bangladeshs-steel-production-is-expected-to-double-and-thrive-by-2030/
Production was 5.5mt last year so this could more than double by then (or may need to be imported to meet domestic demand).

yes China may reduce a bit but much of the decline due to property would be mitigated by investments in renewables, manufacturing expansion.

and IO investment would need to be substantial to ensure increased steel demand is met and depleted mines are replaced. Even if steel demand only increases by 170mt in the next 6 years, that’s close to 250mt of IO needed (170mt x 1.6 for IO needed in blast furnaces) less any increase in EAF usage between now and then.

Even without FMG’s many green investments gaining traction, IO alone will be a growing cash cow for many many years to come.