Trent2684 posted the perfect example as to why analysts opinions are nonsense today.
Analysts take a cyclical approach (which basically means they try to price in what the market already know) whereas if you want to be particularly successful you need to be counter-cyclical around the right time (or have a strategy that achieves the same).
Some of the key points to take from FMG analyst research is:
- FMG's balance sheet is in good order.
- They have a bit of a cash flow crunch ahead of them (after dividends) IF IO prices drop as "predicted" (but that expenditure is somewhat discretionary).
- IF IO prices drop as "predicted" FMG may bit a bit over priced here (DCF, not 12 month target prices).
- HOWEVER, analysts factor in no valuation for Fortescue Future Industries (could be a meaningful error there).
The rest is total crap, especially their ratings and 12 month target prices.
I often read analyst research, but I am oblivious to their opinion and target prices.
My personal take on their research is I accept FMG is a little risky from a valuation perspective, but I "bet" that their IO target prices are just too pessamistic (based on my experience of them never achieving the same historically).
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Trent2684 posted the perfect example as to why analysts opinions...
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Last
$19.49 |
Change
-0.240(1.22%) |
Mkt cap ! $60.03B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$19.65 | $19.65 | $19.37 | $64.17M | 3.287M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
9 | 2507 | $19.48 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$19.49 | 1112 | 9 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 1354 | 19.470 |
12 | 4555 | 19.460 |
8 | 4552 | 19.450 |
20 | 13730 | 19.440 |
12 | 7746 | 19.430 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.480 | 2578 | 8 |
19.490 | 3917 | 12 |
19.500 | 5925 | 10 |
19.510 | 5571 | 12 |
19.520 | 5090 | 10 |
Last trade - 13.46pm 11/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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