Trent2684 posted the perfect example as to why analysts opinions are nonsense today.
Analysts take a cyclical approach (which basically means they try to price in what the market already know) whereas if you want to be particularly successful you need to be counter-cyclical around the right time (or have a strategy that achieves the same).
Some of the key points to take from FMG analyst research is:
- FMG's balance sheet is in good order.
- They have a bit of a cash flow crunch ahead of them (after dividends) IF IO prices drop as "predicted" (but that expenditure is somewhat discretionary).
- IF IO prices drop as "predicted" FMG may bit a bit over priced here (DCF, not 12 month target prices).
- HOWEVER, analysts factor in no valuation for Fortescue Future Industries (could be a meaningful error there).
The rest is total crap, especially their ratings and 12 month target prices.
I often read analyst research, but I am oblivious to their opinion and target prices.
My personal take on their research is I accept FMG is a little risky from a valuation perspective, but I "bet" that their IO target prices are just too pessamistic (based on my experience of them never achieving the same historically).
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Trent2684 posted the perfect example as to why analysts opinions...
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Last
$21.99 |
Change
0.170(0.78%) |
Mkt cap ! $67.89B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$22.18 | $22.18 | $21.85 | $37.30M | 1.690M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 1028 | $21.98 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$21.99 | 12692 | 27 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
9 | 4267 | 21.980 |
12 | 3321 | 21.970 |
13 | 6283 | 21.960 |
14 | 7296 | 21.950 |
7 | 2617 | 21.940 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
21.990 | 9580 | 17 |
22.000 | 3951 | 15 |
22.010 | 4742 | 13 |
22.020 | 4270 | 13 |
22.030 | 3705 | 10 |
Last trade - 11.40am 09/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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