Trent2684 posted the perfect example as to why analysts opinions are nonsense today.
Analysts take a cyclical approach (which basically means they try to price in what the market already know) whereas if you want to be particularly successful you need to be counter-cyclical around the right time (or have a strategy that achieves the same).
Some of the key points to take from FMG analyst research is:
- FMG's balance sheet is in good order.
- They have a bit of a cash flow crunch ahead of them (after dividends) IF IO prices drop as "predicted" (but that expenditure is somewhat discretionary).
- IF IO prices drop as "predicted" FMG may bit a bit over priced here (DCF, not 12 month target prices).
- HOWEVER, analysts factor in no valuation for Fortescue Future Industries (could be a meaningful error there).
The rest is total crap, especially their ratings and 12 month target prices.
I often read analyst research, but I am oblivious to their opinion and target prices.
My personal take on their research is I accept FMG is a little risky from a valuation perspective, but I "bet" that their IO target prices are just too pessamistic (based on my experience of them never achieving the same historically).
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Trent2684 posted the perfect example as to why analysts opinions...
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Last
$16.12 |
Change
-0.010(0.06%) |
Mkt cap ! $49.63B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$16.30 | $16.35 | $16.00 | $142.8M | 8.831M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 18592 | $16.10 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$16.14 | 3138 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 1844 | 16.100 |
1 | 400 | 16.080 |
3 | 2062 | 16.070 |
2 | 9455 | 16.060 |
1 | 2000 | 16.050 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
16.140 | 3138 | 1 |
16.200 | 1600 | 2 |
16.220 | 1010 | 1 |
16.270 | 491 | 1 |
16.280 | 9999 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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