Unless we see steel price recover, I don't see Iron Ore price holding above $100+. Steel rebar is at 2016/2017 levels when iron ore was about <$60. China is dumping steel at a loss on-market right now. Once these steel mills close or slow output because of this loss, then we will see a final iron ore price dump and a price stabilization at a lower level, at what level this is I am not sure (once we see a price bottom invert maybe then we can talk about the next market cycle).
In the below chart, a pairing of steel rebar to iron ore to illustrate demand-pull - when steel is above iron ore, steel pulls iron ore price up. When steel is below iron ore, steel pulls the iron ore price lower. So, when steel crosses above iron ore, that's probably a good time to buy back in according to demand-pull. This excludes the dynamics of an increase in supply of iron ore, etc.
Iron ore price, page-53718
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