FMG 0.43% $16.13 fortescue ltd

I think IO will go as low as $85US/T before it rebounds in...

  1. 3,833 Posts.
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    I think IO will go as low as $85US/T before it rebounds in October.
    Last year it went as low as $77US/T. It might still go that low.

    October to March it rises then falls away around March again.
    Its a 6 month cycle either side.

    2024 is the biggest drop in its share price ever including GFC 1 and 2 and the 2020 crash.
    The stock has dropped from $29.95 to $15.95 which is a $14 drop.

    The 2020 crash was $20 to $8.20
    This is far worse than that.

    The market has not liked the fact we are wasting so many billions on green projects which have yet to make a single profit
    from the green projects and that is the problem.

    If they had not gone down the green road then divs would have been $1.50 or more every 6 months.

    I suspect why we got 89c as they know the next one might be weaker and hold cash back to do a 80c divvy next time.
    Then it might drop to 50c divvies if forecasts are correct where if it stays at $75US/T in 2025 then $71US/T in 2026
    the our divs will shrink as will the share price.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6436/6436989-15a79af320b4fa354105202f4cba8c7d.jpg
    Time will tell if these predictions are true from the WA state government.

    We will know one way or the other come end of October. If its still under $100US/T that might be the new high point.
    FMG will be exporting more of the higher grade IO in the coming months.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6436/6436975-0cd67fa6114ecbd943717e1724524117.jpg

 
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