IO can go to US$90 but if FMG is not getting large premium over 58%, it started to worry me. I don‘t mind if IO is US$60 if I know FMG‘s IO is getting a good premium over 58% fines, or small discout to 62%, ie. In the range of 10-15%.
Let‘s look at last two Q report:
Dec Q: 62% US$71, 58% Premium US$61, 58% US$53, FMG realised price US$65.
March Q: 62% US$85, 58% Premium US$74, 58% US$61, FMG realised price US$65.
Dec Q FMG got nearly US$4 premium over 58% Premium. March Q, they only got US$4 premium over 58% or US$9 discount over 58% Premium.
To big of a turn around for me. Like I said I wouldn‘t careless if IO is US$60 if FMG is getting good premium, but looks like they are not and from their reports they probably not going to get a good premium anytime soon, even if IO is getting back to US$80+.
June Q FMG probably will get back to small discount again. But until then, the Market will use "76%" in valuing the SP.
Spot Steel price today are firming, up 20-50 yuan so far. Chinese IO continue to slide, down another 30 yuan, catching up to the drop of seaborne IO this week.
DYOR.
Frank.
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