IO can go to US$90 but if FMG is not getting large premium over 58%, it started to worry me. I don‘t mind if IO is US$60 if I know FMG‘s IO is getting a good premium over 58% fines, or small discout to 62%, ie. In the range of 10-15%.
Let‘s look at last two Q report:
Dec Q: 62% US$71, 58% Premium US$61, 58% US$53, FMG realised price US$65.
March Q: 62% US$85, 58% Premium US$74, 58% US$61, FMG realised price US$65.
Dec Q FMG got nearly US$4 premium over 58% Premium. March Q, they only got US$4 premium over 58% or US$9 discount over 58% Premium.
To big of a turn around for me. Like I said I wouldn‘t careless if IO is US$60 if FMG is getting good premium, but looks like they are not and from their reports they probably not going to get a good premium anytime soon, even if IO is getting back to US$80+.
June Q FMG probably will get back to small discount again. But until then, the Market will use "76%" in valuing the SP.
Spot Steel price today are firming, up 20-50 yuan so far. Chinese IO continue to slide, down another 30 yuan, catching up to the drop of seaborne IO this week.
DYOR.
Frank.
Iron ore price, page-640
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Last
$25.59 |
Change
0.830(3.35%) |
Mkt cap ! $78.79B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $25.09 | $25.59 | $24.82 | $182.9M | 7.212M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7000 | $25.55 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $25.59 | 108 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 26/04/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$25.53 |
Change
0.830 ( 2.88 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $25.05 | $25.58 | $24.83 | 1579176 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 26/04/2024 ? | |||||
| FMG (ASX) Chart |