FMG 1.75% $18.63 fortescue ltd

Iron ore price, page-903

  1. 3,123 Posts.
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    Girl, when there is a sharp sell-off in share, normally, there are two possibilities:

    1. SP bounce and consolidate, before next leg up.

    2. SP bounce then drops further down to next support. Then bounced and consolidate and UP from there. We normally called the first bounce DCB (Dead Cat Bounce).

    With no1, just wait for the base to form before buying if you are careful. With no2, if you buy from day 1 at the bounce of 2nd drop, that will be the bottom.

    My advice is to buy when SP bounces, not catching a falling knife, you‘ll normally ended wth blood if you do.

    So we have the first bounce already, at $5. I‘ll start to buy at that price. If it drops further, I‘ll be buying a lot more at 2nd bounce.

    ST, there are still bearish factors / black swanns:
    1. Exccess Steel Supplies, lower Steel price
    2. Slow Steel Demand, hence IO, hence price.
    3. North Korea / US
    4. Europe / France / UK

    1 & 2 will benefit FMG in the long run. 3 & 4 will be just another good opportunity to buy when they occur, unless there are "nuclear" weapons involved, then there will be a big drop in World Equity Markets. Let‘s hope that will never occur.

    Again, all just IMO and always DYOR.

    Frank.
 
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