Focusing on the Blue Skies for Winter Olympics 4th - 20th Feb theory I am watching the futures price for early 2022 - March 2022.
The DCE charts are indicating stronger demand during this early year period vs demand than Oct - Dec.
Too early to call it a trend. But I'll continue to observe with strong interest.
Makes sense with fundamentals broadly the same, the mills should look to restock hard early year for production ramp up after Winter Olympics. New year also so China unlikely to have same shackles on steel making compared with H2CY21.
With Evergrande issues kicked down the street I think pricing should get motivations from this phenomena.
Let's see how this plays out. But I'm banking on this trend having some definite impact on demand and IO prices.
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