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China COVID shift is not imminent: Oxford
Timothy Moore

Louise Loo, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said expectations of an imminent end to China’s zero-COVID policy are too high, and she does not expect a meaningful change until mid-2023.

“In our baseline scenario, we assume that China will continue with its ’dynamic zero-COVID policy through the first half 2023, with targeted lockdowns in cities where infections flare up.”

Loo said the timing reflects China’s political calendar with the annual “Two Sessions” plenary meetings in March and the unveiling of key economic policy directions during this time.

In addition, she said its Oxford’s assessment that China would not be sufficiently prepared epidemiologically for a reopening until mid-2023.

“In our view, an orderly exit from zero-COVID will require the following:

A significantly higher elderly vaccination rate (current booster vaccination coverage of about 68 per cent lags the greater 90 per cent coverage seen in Japan and Singapore when they reopened borders fully this year);
A ramp up in the approval and manufacturing of effective COVID pills, and the approvals of foreign-developed mRNA vaccines;
A more lenient approach / meaningful loosening of restrictions relating to asymptomatic cases and their close contacts;
Pivots in public communications to assuage concerns around COVID infections among the population; and
Expansion and upgrading of medical resources (i.e., through building hospitals)
“If these prerequisites are not met, the risk of a disorderly and more severe ‘exit wave’ will rise, undermining any subsequent economic boost associated with departing from the zero-COVID approach.”