Iron ore price, page-639

Medium term I see it being even more favourable for the longs. Reason being to develop any sizeable mine approval process to permitting to beginning mining that's at least a few years. Look how long s11D took. The only large scale project currently flagged is Bhp's south flank. And they have made it clear that it's to replace Yandi which full depletes in a few years. South flank has barely started this process. Outside that the next project is silver grass which has about 10mt coming up next year. That is it. (Happy to be corrected if I have missed any other upcoming project). Guinea and Sundance are both pretty much dead. Sino iron is also going nowhere after billions of dollars have been spent. People often forget how long it takes to get a major project up and running. So after s11d, no one else has any major project in the line up. That's also assuming other existing major mines don't deplete over time too, mines don't last forever.

Of course long term price forecast has always been based on cost curve and most brokers start their long term in year 5 from today. This is not a new approach. This lt prices are purely theoretical and never realised in real life because prices are always determined based on the supply and demand at that point Of time so lt price will constantly be in the distant future adjusted based on the supply demand dynamics when the day come.