check out YML
Go to YML thread and read up on our valuation scenarios
has 45mill jorc and expanding this via drilling to 100mill
looking for intial proddy of 3mill tonnes, and then stepping up to 5-10mill per year
DSO hematite
small equity base - only 85mill shares + options
Future EPS is MASSIVE! Even when using a lower long term price!
I just did a MPV per share breakdown today on YML thread. Check it out. I used 70USD price for IO, 48AUD costs, and I DOUBLED THE CAPITAL in one scenario and in the other I used 70:30 debt to equity for the total of 250mill CAPEX theyll need.
Theyll only need the 250mill CAPEX if they have to build a rail link to FMGs line.
BHP railway is a few kms (3KM from memory) away and runs right along the tenement!
MD is ex-BHP
They are trying to broker a deal with BHP for use of the railway a few kms away.
If this doesnt happen, theyll broker a deal with FMG which is 35kms away
Either way, they have a JORC! And theyre right near infrastructure
because there are so few shares + options on issue, and minimal CAPEX for DSO, the future EARNINGS PER SHARE is MASSIVE.
My NPV beleive it or not is roughly $10 per share! This includes dilution of an extra 50million shares for CAPEX.
Trading at a discount because they need to get an INFRASTRUCTURE DEAL.
FMG has 'third party open door policy'.
Because they can dilute capital further and still have huge EPS, I dont see the problem with building a rail link to FMG.
They can truck the ore 35kms as well.
If they get 70USD for the ore, which is 80AUD, take away 48AUD costs = 32AUD per tonne
Working on 3 mill tonnes intially : 32*3 = 96mill or 67mill after tax
67mill/85mill shares = 79cents per share EPS
dilute a further 50mill shares for CAPEX in the future
so EPS is 67mill/135 = 50cents per share
5mill proddy: 32*5 = 160mill or 112mill after tax
EPS using current equity base: 112mill/85mill = $1.32 EPS!
add another 50 mill shares - EPS is 112/135 = 83cents per share
Draw your own conclusions from the different EPS scenarios!
But the stock is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay undervalued no matter which way you look at it
*** I like it coz there are only 85mill shares + options and so future dilution wont affect EPS much.
MAGNETITE - look at AXO! Lowest costs, closest to port.higher grade magnetite - titanomagnetite. Have offtake agreements with two chinese companys! 7mill tonnes per year already secured under these two contracts! upgrading to 10mill tonnes. Have a BFS already done! Need to raise money tho, but their project requires the LOWEST CAPEX out of all the magnetite plays! Has very low costs of production too.
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