There is a reason why the September futures is often the most traded
on the Dalian IO exchange. In September the Chinese mills enter a restocking
part of the cycle.
With all the stimulus in China this year it's almost a certainty that the
Spot price will bounce again.
This is all just my opinion of course but this new material coming into the
market is not happening all at once and a large part of it is being offset
by mines closing!
I reckon we have atleast another year before the real pain will come.
IN July 2013 UBS was stating that the Iron Ore price would hit $70/dmt by
September. It actually went up to about $145/dmt US.
I think it is important to consider most analyst get it wrong!
