re: irrational exuberance in the property market t
Anyone who has the audacity to suggest that property "just has to go up" because of immigration and population growth, take a look at these statistics.
Here are the average annual compound growth rates of population in Australia over the last 200 years: Decade ending Growth rate %p.a. 1810 8.5% 1820 11.2% 1830 7.6% 1840 9.3% 1850 9.0% 1860 10.9% 1870 3.7% 1880 3.1% 1890 3.5% 1900 1.8% 1910 1.9% 1920 1.8% 1930 1.9% 1940 0.8% 1950 1.6% 1960 2.3% 1970 2.0% 1980 1.5% 1990 1.5% 2000 1.1% 2010(f) 0.9%
Hardly warrants the price gains we've been seeing. So what is it then? Low interest rates? Well, yes but that doesnt stop bubbles from bursting look at Japan property and teh tech boom. How about limited space? Well, considering there wont be a shortage of land in Australia till the about the year 3680 that shouldnt be a problem. and as my previous post shows it definitely isnt an increasing rental return. All factors are pointing to a major plunge. I dont see ANYTHING that could make people want to buy property at the moment... there aren't too many suckers left to sell to as they already bought their investment property in the last 12 months.
