To summarise, I like to look at other fairly comparative companies Market cap / FY18 EBIDTA (as at a few weeks ago)
Coronado Coal: 3.71 (if listed - probably priced a bit 'cheap' on purpose, to lure the fundies)
Whitehaven Coal: 5.03
New Hope Corp: 4.32
Average 4.35
... And Bathurst: 2.4
At the average, we should be looking at a market cap closer to $400m, not closer to $200m like it is today.. and as we all know, the SE assets, most of which BRL now has a substantial ownership stake in, use to be worth "billions", so they say.
To get to the 'average', a 80% ish rise in share price from today's 15.0c would be required... ie 29 ish cents... that would make my 24c target price cheap, and today's price... well 'stupidly' cheap! If they exceed the stated 90m forecast (which has already been revised upward from 60m 3 times), and get say 100m, well we are looking at a doubling of the share price to get a more 'reasonable' level... now of course we have a court case which can go either way, but even if you priced in a huge discount (say 5 cents per share or about 20%), we are still looking at nearly 9c to be added to the share price.
As we have probably seen by now, there was a very large crossing of 34,553,255 shares at 14c - clearly that 14c mark is going to be a very tough barrier to break... and again, I am not saying we won't see 13.5c, or even 13c, but I would expect a swift rebound at such prices back to 14c+... it seems the following remains in tact, as it has done for several months, if not over a year now (with the exception of 1 day): "in general, with high volumes, an increase in share price will likely occur (or at least not a decrease)"
"it ain't rocket science, in the mid 10's, this is a cheap stock"
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Last
78.0¢ |
Change
0.025(3.31%) |
Mkt cap ! $149.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
75.0¢ | 78.0¢ | 74.5¢ | $14.06K | 18.55K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4234 | 75.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
78.0¢ | 9139 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 1215 | 0.630 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.780 | 9139 | 1 |
0.785 | 3532 | 1 |
0.790 | 10000 | 1 |
0.800 | 42871 | 2 |
0.815 | 6538 | 1 |
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