Today's rise, on the back of the highest volume in nearly 3 months, is positive. We haven't seen above 16c for nearly 2 months either, and all of a sudden, quite literally out of nowhere, straight up.
I saw an interesting article in AFR today about a potential IPO of Coronado Coal. Of particular interest, as with any IPO, isthe valuation. "...company's equity value is likely to be more than $2 billion.... It is expected to be pitched as a company producing more than 20 million tonnes of coal a year, primarily metallurgical coal [bit like bathurst], with $539 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in the 2017 calendar year. [For context, ASX-listed Whitehaven Coal is expected to report $935 million EBITDA in the year to June 30 and has a $4.7 billion market cap. New Hope Corp is forecast to produce $417 million EBITDA in the 2018 financial year and has a $1.8 billion market value.]"
So Market cap / EBIDTA
Coronado Coal: 3.71
Whitehaven Coal: 5.03
New Hope Corp: 4.32
Average 4.35
... Bathurst you ask? well even even after today's big rise, yup just 2.4...
At the average, we should be looking at a market cap closer to $400m ($392m), not closer to $200m ($219m)... and as we all know, the SE assets, most of which BRL now has a substantial ownership stake in, use to be worth "billions"
To get to the 'average valuation', a 79% rise in share price from today's 16.5c would be required... ie 29.5c... that would make my 24c target price cheap, and today's price... well 'stupidly' cheap some might say!... sigh...
(maybe when someone saw Coronado Coal trying to get their IPO away at the typical discounted to the rest of the listed players, they saw just how cheap BRL is and couldn't help but buy!?)
(20min delay)