Fat Guy, that's a very good point, but the effect you won't be...

Fat Guy, that's a very good point, but the effect you won't be as dramatic as you might think.

As a result of their recent $1.2b capital raising, in July they issued about 44.5m new shares, (44.5m * $27 = $1.2B).

According to the SMH website they are now 332,520,216 issued shares. That would represent an increase of %15 prior to their last capital raising. Their P/E stands at around 18.5, high, but historically not too excessive.

So I don't think the dilution will that significant compared to the 07-08 period, particularly when you bear in mind that in May 2006, they raised $700m at $66(10,606,061 new shares), and in May 2007, they raised again $750m at $87(8,620,690 new shares). All this, plus their transformation into a bank holding company, just before the GFC. You can hardly criticize their sense of timing.

I think in the short term price movement will be driven by general market sentiment, the internalisation of their listed funds, and a solution to MIG restructure. MAP will set the trend for the internalisation.

So maybe it's more a case of Granny smith versus golden Delicious.