Well i refrained from posting any links figuring all the people that say I am crazy would post stuff that shows why. I did not see a single thing that had back up and several things that It was posted Friday
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/explainer-why-bond-yields-may-be-warning-of-a-recession/ar-AAVKOay?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=W018&cvid=2648e198f2b346478be964667ba385ae
I posted this article because it was one of the more balanced ones. Now though most of it backs up what I have been saying about a recession there are a few things that do not. So you can find stuff to refute me if you read and understand.IS IT A PERFECT PREDICTOR?
No, an inverted yield curve has sent false positives before. The three-month and 10-year yields inverted in late 1966, for example, and a recession didn’t hit until the end of 1969.
Some market watchers have also suggested the yield curve is now less significant because herculean actions by central banks around the world have distorted yields. Through the pandemic, the Federal Reserve bought trillions of dollars of bonds in order to keep longer-term yields low, after slashing overnight rates to nearly zero. Soon, it will start allowing those bonds to roll off its balance sheet, which should add upward pressure on longer-term yields.
Just keep in mine that there have been many correction or recessions since 1966 and that was the last time this was not a good predictor.
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