Just got this in an email ...Thu, 8 Dec at 9:27 amThursday, 8...

Just got this in an email ...Thu, 8 Dec at 9:27 am

Thursday, 8 December 2022

AGL - AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Outperform (1) - Credit Suisse increases its FY24 and FY25 earnings forecasts for AGL Energy on higher modeled electricity and large scale generate certificate (LGC) prices, offset by a lower capacity assumption for Loy Yang A.

The broker's target increases to $9.60 from $8.20. Outperform.

After conducting a scenario analysis, Credit Suisse estimates AGL would be less impacted by government imposed price caps than Origin Energy ((ORG)). This is due to less net output exposed to high price NSW/SA after Aluminium smelter contracts and the Liddell closure.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: $1.55 If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 38.67 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.82. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of -69.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 123.23 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.53. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.7, implying annual growth of 173.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources