Over the next 3 months there are 3 possible scenarios IMO: (a) that the Ukraine gains incremental ground. (b) very little if any change (c) that Russia gains incremental ground
Of course a sharp global recession could change the balance; particuluarly the resolve of European countried to supply the ever increasing financial & military support.
IMO Russia has at least a year to go before it hits the debt levels of the EC and we dont have enough economic data to determine whether the oil & gas caps will work and/or what prices these two vital exports will earn via backdoor sales to China, India etc. Even if Russia did release figures they'd likely be rubbery because petro revenue is apt to be a Russian State Secret, IMO.
IMO those spruiking outcomes either way may be disappointed because, short of a protracted war , serious compromised may have to be made by both sides and even then, it will likely take a generation to rebuild the country via outside aid.
Even if there were to be a negotiated treaty in the morning , the odd 10 million that have migrated wont have much appetite to return because even before the war, the Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe.
I doubt that any of the Ukrainians who are settling in Aus will want to returm. Would you if you were to be in their shoes ....eh?
