economic data is coming in continually very weak, the underemployment in this country is huge.
yes there was a trade deal, however it stipulates that China buy $200B more goods from the US, which means China will have to cut that spending from other countries. We are on the chopping block there which will swing our current account balance back to deficit.
A recession is a reality when you think of GDP as 4 things: Consumption (trending down), Investment basically capex... which is already negative), Gov spending (only positive, but federal gov wants to cut it), and net exports (usually negative, and will get there faster due to the trade deal) .
interest rates can go much lower, and with central bank easing there will always be a buyer.
