$95 per barrel by end of CY2009 the experts say - and they so advise!!|
March 08, 2008 OIL prices were unable to hold gains to a new high above $US106, falling after worst the US employment data in five years.
Light, sweet crude for April delivery settled US32 cents lower at $US105.15 a barrel, down 0.3 per cent on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The April contract hit an intraday high of $US106.54, the eighth such record in the last nine sessions, but wasn't able to hold its gains. April Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded down US16c at $US102.45 a barrel.
US jobs data released by the Department of Labour on Friday showed the worst drop in non-farm jobs since March 2003. April futures immediately declined by more than $US1.50, to an intraday low of $US103.91 a barrel. A rebound soon followed, leading to the latest record, followed by a steep drop in the final hours before trading shut down for the weekend.
Although the employment data kicked off the day's cycle of valleys and peaks, the state of the US dollar was still seen driving the action. Although the US dollar has weakened along with the US economy, it briefly recovered against the euro following the jobs report, helping send oil lower. But the US dollar quickly fell to yet another record low, sending crude soaring before trailing off toward the end of trading.
"All eyes are on the US dollar," said Michael Korn, president of Skokie Energy, a Princeton, New Jersey-based brokerage. "The fact of the matter is, can anyone say where resistance is here?"
Goldman Sachs issued a revision to its 2009-2010 price report on Friday, and now predicts an average selling price of $US95 a barrel this year, increasing to $US110 a barrel in 2010.
"There may come a point where the crude oil market starts to associate bearish economic news as more of a threat to oil demand than to the value of the US dollar," wrote Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup in New York.
In other commodities news, platinum futures were pounded on Friday by long liquidation that was encouraged by news that South African mines may get more electricity.
Selling was also fuelled by soft US jobs data and recent weakness in equities, analysts said.
Gold also lost some ground. However, silver futures finished modestly higher.
April platinum settled $US159.10 lower at $US2041.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. June palladium lost $US34.20 to finish at $US495 an ounce.
April gold futures fell $US2.90 to $US974.20 a troy ounce on the Comex division of Nymex, May silver rose US2.5c to $US20.25 an ounce, and most-active May copper climbed US1.8c to settle at $US3.9215 a pound.
In grains trading, speculative sales and profit-taking pummelled wheat contracts.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange May wheat closed limit down, or US60c lower, for the fifth consecutive day as the market continued to pull back from high prices.
MGE May wheat finished US60c lower at $US13.1975 a bushel, and was down $US3 on the week. CBOT May wheat ended US20c lower at $US11.05 per bushel, up US19c on the week. Kansas City Board of Trade May wheat was US13.50c lower at $US11.69 Friday, up US9c on the week.
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