ARI 8.82% 3.7¢ arika resources limited

KM has said they hope to have the entire mess done and dusted...

  1. 379 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 21
    KM has said they hope to have the entire mess done and dusted with their report to ASIC due by the end of February 2017 (and with criminal charges to be applied against directors if they find any wrongdoing).

    The final financial reports for the following periods (1/1/2016 to 30/6/2016) and 1/7/2016 to 31/12/2016 are now not due to October 2018 (due to ASIC giving them an exemption).

    What Fitnfam said is right: when Molycop gets sold off, the rest of Arrium will be taken over by someone with a cash and script offer - the A$2 Billion in tax losses are too much to let go for nothing.

    If Molycop gets sold off for $1.80 Billion, the rest of Arrium (Arrium Australia) is worth around the $1.30 to $1.40 Billion; And in the past 6 months, Arrium would have been easily paying the interest only on the Gross debt ($2.80 Billion) and some left over to pay the outstanding trade creditors (most of which would have been cancelled out or paid by trade debtors (incomings) as well and KM and legal fees.

    So $1.40 Billion minus $1 Billion of debt left over (after selling off Molycop) leaves $400 million. Each $90 million is worth around 3 cents per share - so $400/90 = 13 cents per share.

    6 months ago I would have said shareholders have no chance of getting anything back. But since then:

    Steel prices are up 25% worldwide;
    Tariffs are in place in Australia for between 30% to 50% (including Molycops operations);
    Whyalla has been stabilised to break even;
    Iron Ore prices are up from US$43 per tonne to US$55 per tonne (and are steady at that price);
    Bad Shipping contracts the idiotic directors and legal team signed off on (Ms James and Edler) have expired in September;
    The Federal Government has offered a A$49 million dollar loan at cheap Government interest rates which will lift the iron ore grade at Middle Back Ranges to close to 62% FE contents which will increase the price they fetch for sale from 87.5% up to 95% to 100% of the headline Fe price (now US $55 per tonne); and
    Workers at Whyalla and the Iron Mines agreeing to a new EBA cutting their wages 10% per annum; and
    Possibly more to come from State and Federal Government to modernise Whyalla Steelworks - such as Electricity Co-generation and the like.

    With all the numbers lining up and the fat cut out of the place, it is a very tempting takeover target indeed. And rest assured the total value of Molycop and Arrium Australia is worth far more than the A$2.80 Billion of Gross Debt when it went into VA on April 7th.

    Let's see - we should have a clearer picture by the end of November when Molycop gets sold off.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add ARI (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.