LNG 0.00% 4.3¢ liquefied natural gas limited

Actually @mwilson25, there's another important para that's worth...

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    Actually @mwilson25, there's another important para that's worth reflecting on, namely "As configured, the project seeks to export up to 8 million tonnes per annum (mta) of LNG from Point Tupper terminal in 2019, expanding to 12 mta by 2024 – a volume that would require gas for at least 4 mta of exports from Canadian sources, as Bear Head has only requested enough for 8 mta from the US."

    The author assumes exports from the US and whilst BH recently obtained such approval, importing from the US is but one of three alternatives, the other being the offshore fields and the 'All Canadian Alternative" i.e. liberating gas from Western Canada, which to date has promised much and delivered little. The slide below shows all 3 options:
    Screen Shot 2016-07-03 at 10.36.00 PM.png
    See slide 9 from recent NY presentation if  unclear
    http://www.lnglimited.com.au/irm/PDF/3843/InvestorPresentation


    And if indeed there is a capacity constraint, you'd think JB & DJ would be well aware. Further, if feedstock were contracted, you would also reasonably assume the required capacity increase would be accommodated given the economics for all parties concerned delivering such a supply to BH.

    Lastly and whilst I appreciate these comments relate to JG (no longer with BH and a year old), worth considering what he said, namely:

    “All of those discussions and agreements and negotiations are highly confidential, at this point, but all I can say is that we are moving very quickly with a lot of very interested parties.” (May15)
    http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/1287956-bear-head-starts-design-work

    "I’d rather not go into our commercial strategy and plans. But suffice to say there is pipeline capacity available and we’re very focused on pipeline capacity." (Jul15)
    http://www.naturalresourcesmagazine.net/?article=the-big-chill

    Time will tell and as LNG has 100% equity in the project, KBR have completed FEED stage 1 and analysts ascribe zero value to the project, there's only significant upside for LNG should BH source gas feed and sign BTAs.

    And for good measure as the FT noted Friday, "LNG touched nearly $3 per thousand cubic feet Thursday, the highest in a year. A hotter summer has slowed the swelling of inventories. Production growth has also flattened, with the DoE forecasting only a 1% rise in output this year."

    Just like oil, the glut is beginning to move back towards equilibrium providing a firmer footing for prices.

    That Mexican standoff I referred to a few weeks ago, won't last forever ...

    Go LNG!
    Last edited by Timbogold: 04/07/16
 
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