Hi Hanrahan, Cyclones can go through rapid intensification. I do...

Hi Hanrahan,
Cyclones can go through rapid intensification.  
I do suspect that the BOM do overestimate the severity sometimes more out of concern.  Would rather overestimate than under, purely for safety reasons.

The proof will be in the results tomorrow.  But the obs from the nearby station creal reef have it blowing the crap out of the place.  So it is up there.

I thought YASI was oversold.  That is not to take away the severity of its impact but the media played yasi for all its worth.

And yes empirical proof aligning AGW with cyclone intensity is a fantasy and only exists in the virtual world of models.  We will have the unusual scenario tonight / tomorrow where we have two cyclones simultaneously thrashing about on the Australian coastline.

In saying we are a big country and it has come close a few times before.