@towie in support of your headline to this (now old) thread...could this be a future model for Minim Martap? Namely, clear the air on China's coastline - build refinery in Africa.https://www.mining-technology.com/news/consortium-alumina-refinery-guinea/
Admittedly following is very basic back of envelope comparison calcs (best use for envelopes these days)
10Mtpa->20Mtpa later (check - CAY very similar)
Build 130km railway 1.2Bn (check - CAY may get lucky here - biggest unknown IMHO)
Build refinery 900M (check - a distinct possibilty for whoever finally takes out CAY)
Bauxite grades - apparently comparable ( 2.5% I could be wrong - but https://blog.alcircle.com/2017/08/02/guinea-bauxite-considered-best-world/)
Total investment being discussed 3.2Bn
Implied value of the Guinea ongoing concern without rail + refinery = approx 1.1Bn (ignores previous investment to get deposits this far)
I'm sure I have overlooked many many things let's say 900M
SOI at CAY 373M (plus options - but no more room on envelope)
This places basic resource portion of this project with a similar overall model to CAY (although CAY may well have a superior overall resource profile) at approx 2.40 /share.
This very non-geo non-tech analysis seems to put a solid floor under the value of CAY. Granted, Guinea is the poster boy at the moment.
Please tell me where I have messed up or overlooked something.
But please be civilised about it - I claim no expertise. GLTAH
** Hard to figure out if the refinery was to output 1mtpa alumina or input 10mtpa bauxite, or a typo** but it actually isn't relevant to the resource valuation theory**
