I think a lot will now depend on how the proposed cap legislation is implemented. Elements I've seen include: 1. Cap of 40% international students 2. Hard caps on total numbers based on 2019 figures 3. Applicable for NEW admissions from January 2025 4. Caps will apply for 2 years
But even if it's implemented there's a lot of interpretation and unknowns possible within this model.
Are there exceptions where accommodation is available (could EDU do a deal with Mulpha)? Will IKN and ALG be treated separately? I believe ALG had around 2,000 students in 2019 but IKN has grown significantly of late. Would there be separate caps for IKN and ALG or a single IKN cap?
Ostensibly they're trying to direct training into areas of need so you'd hope IKNs health and community services courses would be spared the worst.
I'm still quite hopeful that with this year's strong numbers they'll have plenty of good momentum to carry profitability through 2025 but with so many unknowns (and with lease commitments) there's obviously plenty of risk.
EDU Price at posting:
8.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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