Originally posted by Hokey 5771
The true intrinsic value of FBR is ZERO as is every stock with no revenue
It is impossible to value or gauge earnings for 5 years without one single sale or one single known margin your figures are a litany of Polly piffle
Firstly they have to get someone to mass manufacture the machine
Secondly they have to get buyers to buy the machine
Unknown margins between production to monetization and profitability after capital expenditure
Unknown staffing levels unknown costs per quarter to get this to production do you really think CAT will do it for free
These types of figures above popping up on spec boards should be read with a huge dose of yeah get real
If you don't have any hard figures you cannot build a DFS period its pie in the sky stuff
Let's see a deal on the table expected margins expected costs put a moat around that then do a DFS ok happy to help at the time
I am well aware that at the present time, FBR is a money pit. It's only value is in its IP, which I would now argue has some value as it has been shown to be viable.
If you read my whole post, I precede my assumptions by explaining the estimates are of
my absolute best case (and this is IMO only), that HX is a success and assumes CAT purchase the design of HX. I expect the actual result to fall somewhere between best and worst (100% loss) case. I also didn't assume that revenues will begin next year, keeping it generic using year numbers rather than dates (Year 1 could be 2019 or 2050, who knows?). You will also notice that I wrote in terms of
revenue generated, not costs or profits, so my lack of numbers for margins, staff costs etc. is irrelevant. I have also done no EPS calculations, and have not estimated any potential share price. Any DCF calculations would require some assumptions on profits, and I have given none.
For people who have a long-term view of FBR, this is just a guide for potential revenues, based on information already released by FBR and some of my own assumptions. To say that there is no basis for my figures is ridiculous. People like to put numbers on things, and this is the most realistic I could achieve with some basis for my reasoning.
To be honest Hokey, I often find myself skipping past your posts these days, which is in contrast to when I started watching these forums last year. Your posts used to be of a higher quality, if poorly formatted, and provided some valuable insight. You used to have a positive outlook on the company, tempered with some logical reasoning to be cautious, not over-enthusiastic. These days you are just attacking the company/management and posters here. I also notice your sentiment and holding status fluctuates frequently (your first post above states Buy/Held, and the second says Hold/Not held). You no longer seem to add any value to the conversation, which is disappointing.
I don't post very often, but when I do, I hope I have something interesting for people to consider that maybe they hadn't before.
(20min delay)