If all of the unknowns and 'uncalculables' you list were quantified then the share price wouldn't be 19 cents. This is a spec stock and is priced accordingly.
But to suggest the technology is worth "nothing" is patently false.
Yeah, there's a ways to go yet on the path to commercialisation, numbers need to be crunched, but FBR has now been substantially derisked - their machine works, it's no longer a lab rat concept; they bricked a proper house with it on a real property.
The trend toward robotics is real, and will dominate in the future.
The only viability calculations and questions that need to be answered are...
How much will this machine save in annual labour costs?
Can a machine be manufactured and sold with enough margin to make the business case compelling to the end-purchaser?
Will the machine be suitable for use on enough building sites to make it viable?
If the answer to these questions is "yes" then commercialisation will follow; the how is merely a detail to work out.
It's reasonable to assume that FBR already have the answers to these questions, otherwise why would they have bothered?
Will CAT do it for free? That's a vague and unhelpful way of expressing it. If, after doing the business case, and can get a workable licensing deal from FBR (and there are endless technology licensing models) they will work out how to manufacture, market and distribute it. That's their core business. They won't be doing it for FREE, they'll be doing it as part of their normal operations based on a staged commercial viability assessment program.
If not CAT then another global industrial machinery manufacturer.
Yes, this isn't a done deal. But, it's making substantial progress.
Just my observations.
IMO DYOR
FBR Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)