I'm torn on the $75 million funding part. If the business does have the transformational step up from 500,000 transactions a month to billions per year. They most certainly will need that kind of capital.
Despite the angle from management that they will "always be lean", to service that kind of volume they will need to expand their operational capability significantly.
- Set up a call centre
- Train and deploy a salesforce (I know they say there strategy is not to, but be realistic you cant service enterprise clients without a salesforce. I suspect Joel and Bane do this themselves currently, but that has diminishing returns as volume increases).
- The corporate structure. I note from the fin stats they have 2 operating entities (Aus and US). They claim to sell to 70 countries, they are going to need to set up companies in those jurisdictions and with that comes accounting, tax, legal and treasury compliance aspects.
- Data will be huge. Billions of transactions that include real time tracking and alerts, thats a lot of data. So they would need serious horsepower in servers etc.
- They would need to employee significantly more back office staff to do all of this.
- How is working capital funded? If revenue rockets to to millions per month, then working capital funding will need to be put in place. Unless they plan on using shareholder funds for this (not ideal). I think they rely on credit card an prepaid accounts at the moment. The big companies they are targeting wont pay by these methods.
Its another reason I'm sceptical at the moment. If they had these transformational opportunities, I would expect announcements, plans and roadmaps dealing with the above. To be fair to management things have been moving quickly, so all this might be in the pipeline and it would reduce my risk rating if they do indeed start acting and make announcements in these areas. They have also said the big increases are months away, so I acknowledge that.
Its important to recognise there are leading indicators of growth, especially big step ups as opposed to incremental and organic growth. You don't need to solely wait for historical 4c results. I fully appreciate there are current investors that are comfortable with more realistic growth patterns.
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I'm torn on the $75 million funding part. If the business does...
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