is it forming an ugly head and shoulders, page-82

I could be burnt at the stake for this herasy but.....

I have been, as I sometimes do, giving some consideration to Armstrong's economic confidence model. Something has occurred to me :

as we know the cycle is 3141 days or Pi x 1000. we also know there is a mathematical, albeit complex, relationship between Pi and fibonacci numbers.....

Pi/4 = the sum of the arctan of the inverse of every second fibonacci number from 2 to infinity.

As fib numbers and Pi are natural numbers that occur over and over in nature and the stock charts I can accept the 3141 day cycle.....but where does Armstrong get off so neatly dividing his cycle as he does ??

Traditionally it is divided into perfect 1/8s. From a major armstrong low it is accepted that it is 2/8 (or 1/4) up to the left shoulder, 3/8 from the low to the dip between the left shoulder and head, 4/8 or 1/2 cycle to the peak....etc.

It occurs to me that these divisions Armstrong uses are in fact the approximations we generally use for the common fibonacci ratios. It would therefore seem to make more sense to me to use these ratios, as they are naturally occurring maths phenomena, than the neat divisions that Armstrong uses. We already know that fibonacci ratios apply to time as well as price.

Put another way instead of turns in his cycle at 25%, 37.5%, 50%, 62.5%, 75% and 100% we would have the turns at 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 76.5% and 100%.

this would in fact not change the major lows and highs at all but would shift his shoulders, and the dips between shoulders and head by +/- 22 or 44 days.....

an interesting aside in this is that the dip between the left shoulder and head would be exactly 1200 days from the low. The right should would be twice this from the low at 2400 days.

What this would mean is that the recent right shoulder (at 61.8% of the entire Armstrong cycle) would be 44 days later than traditionally accepted, or simply on June 3rd instead of April 19th......

......We know the rally high came in on the 11th but the chart has a flat top running from the 1st to 12th June so the (modified) Armstrong turn also occurs in this period. Perhaps history will show the rally high does coincide with the Armstrong turn down after all.