is it now in the timing?

With a degree of surmising on these threads that a third party offer is unlikely to come, at least not before details of upgraded reserves are available, one begins to set about thinking along the lines of another predator .

If the consensus is currently that STO has an opportunistic but potentially fatal headlock on ESG and has set strategies in place to alienate Board from shareholders, suppress market SP and situate and time determining factors in the SCRIP ONLY bid via a SOA then WHAT must an alternate bidder ?s approach include to trump STO ? and significantly, HOW SOON?

Remember, whilst HC-ites have voted Stumpy around one in three to vote NO (allowing that a number of ?reads? were possibly non-holders) we really would like to avoid testing THAT scenario in order to secure our deemed value in Gunnedah gas.

Remember, this evening there will be holders of ESG stock in various size parcels, who may have been ?advised? into them at some point by a pimply faced broker, these holders may never have been near a forum like ours, or bought a Fin Review, let alone scanned the financial pages of their local daily. Reminded by the parallel thread here ?Churn & Turn? I imagine brokers have called clients already suggesting to tip into the market. Not all of course, some will advise to sit it out awhile, but others may be less conscionable, or for quite legitimate reasons suggest repositioning funds elsewhere, (in the process doubling up on commission because it?s also opportune).

I guess where I?d better get to the point is this. I?m not convinced an Origin or other party WILL wait ? if they?re in the wings at all. If Santos likes this deal on current metrics, analysts concur, and our Board?without our second guessing, appears to recommend it for now, leaves us spitting chips.

Delaying its bid too long risks a new bidder losing out on further shares currently on-selling into a Santos friendly holder and these sellers may be coming from the ranks of those unspoken I referred to, who we would as a last resort , so badly need to vote NO. Right now, around dinner tables, during ad breaks, small holders may be deciding to ring their broker tomorrow and sell.

We were told often enough by ESG that they had ?talked with parties?. I believe it is likely others would have had, up to a point, at least as good an idea as STO of the growing status of our reserves. At least I admit I?d like to think so. Were that true, would this give our Board some comfort in ?gambling? with the first STO offer to put us in play?

An ?educated? offer from another entity at say 1.12 ? 1.15 for CASH, on or off market, quickly turn the tide of sellers away from STO?s direction and most importantly upset the momentum and perceived certainty of the existing SOA?

Far easier I would think to wrest shares whilst still in the hands of wavering mums ?n dads for a CASH offer in that vicinity BEFORE they get down and dirty with STO later in the 1.50 upwards range.

This IS business, and STO have a reputation they would like to put behind them, whilst a competitor wouldn?t miss a chance to pressure their resolve and capacity to fund the acquisition which we ourselves, (ignoring depressed markets et al), know to be a steal.

I?ve rushed this into print in my enthusiasm, maybe even naivity, and would prefer to calmly discuss with you over a drink ? sadly can?t do.

So folks when would YOU counter bid - sooner or later?

Lilac