Is it time to bargain hunt?, page-10

large scale invasion/war will no doubt require more steel production. If the tanks do start rolling then the market will panic and there will be a major sell off.

IO price is currently much closer to its historical peak than to the bottom end so that is also a factor to consider. The China stimulus will come to an end. The momentum will unwind and the best buying opportunities will present themselves when the stock falls out of favor. Wait for the fear to kick in and FMG will become oversold, which I do not think is now.

You also have to consider Chinas position, can they keep paying these high prices? are they stockpiling for a rainy day? maybe to punish Australia by cutting imports for 1-2 years and live off stockpiles until then? They can turn the tap off at anytime and have proven to be temperamental.

I do not think now is a good time to buy, I can see much more downside potential than upside, the money has been made on the back of the covid recovery and the the trickle is going strong with dividend. It is not uncommon for these mining companies to trade at or below their book value. FMG book value is about $8. I would invest only in a sure thing and although FMG is a great company with a proven record, the price imo, is currently on the expensive end of the scale.