is it time to buy or to wait for a correction?, page-66

EPS at EOFY 17 was 300% that of the pcp, meaning approximately 200% increase from basic eps of 4.43c to 12.66c.

Given all the windfalls coming for FY18 and Synlait increased capex and plant acquisitions, this year's eps growth will be beaten EZPZ imo, as a very large supply increase (at least double) will also meet the exponential increase in demand as a result of CFDA that will remove a significant chunk of the competition as we can see from Juicer's earlier thread (quoted below).

"Meanwhile, the number of products available from foreign brands may fall from a high of over 2,200 before 2014 to about 300 once the regulations take effect, estimated Wang Gang, an official from China’s Certification and Accreditation Administration."

I agree with your 40x forward for a strong growth company such as A2m, but to be conservative, let's use 33x for our projection.

This would mean a likely minimum 200% eps increase for FY18 eps that would make it 37.98cps. Hence, 37.98*33 = $12.53

Being even more conservative, let's bring down expected eps growth to 135%, therefore placing FY18 eps at 29.75 cps. Hence, 29.75*33 = $9.82 (in line with many people's expectation of $10 by next year end).

Also at $9.82, places our market cap at $7.27 bil, which is still a far way from RB's acquisition of Mead Johnson for a valuation of $16.6 bil, and rightly so.

I've been trying to say on this forum, having realised how exponential the growth in A2m can be as the premier dairy brand. The CFDA registration was the major derisker and confirmation for A2's future growth.

Do you guys remember how in the past, once the SP hits new psychological highs especially how there'd be numerous "decrease in substantial holding" disclosures by the fundies? How come we haven't seen any yet since we hit 7.25, despite the fact that many claim that it's overvalued?

Reason being, it's ABSOLUTELY NOT in the grand scheme of things.