is it worth the risk?, page-30

re: is it worth the risk?...acturtle Dude think about what you said.
An estimated success rate of 40% or failure rate of 60%.

If Grayling comes off you get a return of around 300% on your money.
If it fails according to baillues report today there is limited downside as grayling isnt even priced into the NXS share price...little alone any further success at longtom.

So you have a 40% chance of making 300%
You have a 60% chance of losing lets say for your sake opposed to what baillues say 25c has been priced into nxs for grayling.

Now 4 out of 10 times you are gonna make 300%
6 out of 10 times you are gonna lose 50%.

Lets say i bet 10k each time.

10k win end up with 40k
10k win end up with 40k
10k win end up with 40k
10k win end up with 40k

Ok so thats my 4 wins for a total profit of 160k minus costs= 120k

Now i bet 10k again on the losing side
10k loss end up with 5k after loss
10k loss end up with 5k after loss
10k loss end up with 5k after loss
10k loss end up with 5k after loss
10k loss end up with 5k after loss
10k loss end up with 5k after loss


Out lay 60k loss 30k

So all your winners would give you a profit of 120k
All your losers would give you a loss of 30k
Net gain 90k if you had these same odds for 10 bets.



So if you had this same bet 10 times you would come out well ahead...thats my point...its a great punt...do the figures yourself