The merger prices of Qantas and Air New Zealand will be interesting next year both in terms of when this might happen and how, including the prices. I would expect Air New Zealand to be more like $1.10 or almost double the market cap of today while the Qantas capitalisation is probably likely to drop a bit as the US FAA and Trump Administration expect their slots and competition to increase.
Sean Duffy as Trump's incoming Head of the FAA, the privatization of Air Traffic Control in America, splitting the FAA off from the Department of Transport and the Trump Administration's stance towards anti trust and the merger of Spirit Airlines with Jet Blue should cause the Qantas - Air New Zealand merger to go ahead.
Criticism of the Australian and New Zealand protectionism in this area and the freeing up of slots and competition for Qantas should in theory mean a merger between Qantas and Air New Zealand is close to certain or some would say inevitable.
AirServicesAustrala might be privatized by any incoming LNP Government and Luxon/ Peters is more likely to privatize Airways as well.
Airways has been more accommodating to Qantas than Air New Zealand as Luxon knows and Seymour/ ACT might push for Airways to be privatized which should benefit Air New Zealand just in time for merger preparations for Qantas.
Qantas and Air New Zealand will be able to better compete against IAG, American, DAL, UAL, Emirates and Etihad if they were merged together.
Australian aviation cannot be an effective Qantas monopoly forever as it mistreats Australian domestic aviation travellers immeasurably.
AIZ Price at posting:
54.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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