I think you're right Superwealthy - BHP bought UMC because it...

I think you're right Superwealthy - BHP bought UMC because it was a natural fit with their deposits. Iron Valley is the same for Fortescue as it's just an extension of one of their deposits.

But Iron Valley is also 25-30k's from the RIO and BHP rail lines. This will be a tussle over Iron Valley for sure between these three - but Fortescue will also want Bungaroo as it's near its other western deposits.

I think Fortescue will run hard on this and make an offer we can't refuse for the whole company - RIO and BHP will only want Iron Valley and won't be able to match the offer.

At $1.30 per tonne I make it $5.34 per share - close enough to one Fortescue share for one IOH share.