Thinking more about it, I suspect if & it's a massive if, it...

Thinking more about it, I suspect if & it's a massive if, it came to a bid from FMG, I'd say it would be cash. The reason I say that is two fold. a) Twiggy holds about one third of the FMG stock & he hates to dilute, so to issue stock FMG would have to issue new capital hence Twiggy would be diluted, b) FMG are now being talked about in terms of their ability to raise another $4b in debt funding (in addition to the $2b raised last week) & that their cash flow could easily service that debt.

The whole argument of FMG making a bid for IOH centres on the public relation benefit that flows to FMG through being seen now as predator rather than prey. Obviously, there are heaps of other benefits that flow to them - financial, operational etc.

So my bet is a cash bid not a script bid. It would then be the individual's decision to then buy FMG stock with their 'new' cash.

The figure most often bandied about is the $1.25 UMC price, which would be terrific, but remember we are currently worth a fraction of that amount - in the ground. Also, we're at 600Mt today, but that is only going up & going up dramatically so I'd hope that what ever deal is done, it make provision for upside via escalation clauses linked to JORC upgrades.