Is Morwell closing down, page-21

There is currently a bit of a debate in the Newcastle Herald, about the future of coal.
This response, by Stephen Galilee (Head of the NSW Minerals Council), in today's Newcastle Herald, is worth a read.


OPINION: China’s coal demand will continue to grow By Stephen Galilee July 30, 2014, 9:30 p.m.


THE Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, whose Australasian director Tim Buckley wrote an opinion piece for the Newcastle Herald on Tuesday, has an anti-mining agenda. Its stated mission is ‘‘to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy and to reduce dependence on coal and other non-renewable energy resources’’.

In other words, to campaign against the coal industry.

This raises the question whether some of the claims it makes about coal are supported by facts or forecasts from other objective authorities.

Take for instance the institute’s assertion that coal’s role in China’s electricity sector is under threat. Earlier this year, the US government’s Department of Energy forecast that while coal’s share of China’s energy mix would fall to 55per cent by 2040, absolute consumption of coal would increase by 50per cent over this period, reflecting the large growth in total energy consumption. A 50per cent increase in the use of coal hardly sounds like the role of coal in China is under threat. It sounds more like a significant economic opportunity for the people of the Hunter, with the potential for ongoing jobs and development.

Further, the highly respected International Energy Agency estimates global electricity demand could double between 2009 and 2035 as more people are able to access electricity and household energy consumption grows in the developing world. And it says coal will meet more of the increase in global energy demand than oil or gas over the next five years – continuing a trend that has been in place for more than a decade. It expects coal demand in China to continue to grow, and also forecasts growing demand in all of our major coal markets, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan and India.

This forecast future growth comes on the back of strong demand over the past few years.

China’s demand for NSW coal increased significantly in 2012-13, growing by more than 30percent and cementing China’s place as the second largest market for the state’s coal exports.

There was also growth in demand for NSW coal in our other major markets. Demand for NSW coal in Japan rose by 12per cent in 2012-13, demand in Korea rose nearly 20per cent, and in Taiwan, demand rose by 6.5per cent.

This growth in global demand for coal is good news for the future of the Hunter economy. The Hunter has some of the best quality coal in the world, an experienced and highly accomplished mining workforce, and the world’s largest coal export port. So, while the local industry is experiencing short-term challenges, the long-term prospects are good, provided we can continue to meet the future demand.

As an affordable and accessible source of energy, coal will continue to be a large part of the world’s energy mix for many years. And with much of the growth in demand to come from Asia, the Hunter is in a strong position to help meet demand over the medium to long term.

Stephen Galilee is the chief executive officer of the NSW Minerals Council