is my maths right?

Based on the current estimates I get the following figures:

51000000 Shares outstanding
$700,000,000 Revenue - at $350 per Ton KCL
$2,400,000,000 Capital cost
$366,000,000 Cost (including sustaining)
$94,000,000 Earnings (including Capital at 10% pa)
$1.84 Earnings per Share

Therefore at a 10% cost of capital expect $1.84 USD earnings per share
At P/E of 6 = target price of approx $12

So even with a risk of say only 10% likelihood of success, these babies should be trading at $1.20 (even with more shares issued - these will cover the capital costs so reduce those in above table)

Am I wrong here? The overwhelmingly positive aspect I see is the low number of shares on issue and the high potential upside.

of course - 10% might be optimistic.